Speaking to the media Sunday, Atkinson made headlines with a viral remark suggesting that, from an analytical perspective, the Cavaliers are actually ahead in the series.
“Analytically, we are two out of three in the expected [score],” Atkinson explained. “We’ve won two out of the three. If you believe in process and all that, take that layer. Us shooting way below expected, them shooting way over. No one wants to hear that, the general public doesn’t want to hear it, everyone is outcome-based. Sure, I get that, too.”
The “expected score” statistic Atkinson referenced measures what a team should have scored based on the quality and difficulty of its shots. In other words, despite losing all three games, the Cavaliers have consistently generated high-quality scoring opportunities that, statistically, should have resulted in victories in two of the three contests.
Fans may find this framing difficult to digest. The Cavaliers are literally one loss away from being swept in the Eastern Conference finals, a scenario that would immediately end their season. But Atkinson’s message is one of process, not panic.
The first game of the series may support his argument. Cleveland blew a 22-point fourth-quarter lead before falling in overtime, 115-104. Subsequent losses in Games 2 and 3 were more decisive — by 16 and 13 points, respectively — though shot-quality metrics suggest the Cavaliers created scoring chances that, if executed at league-average efficiency, could have produced a different result.
On Monday, the Cavaliers face a do-or-die Game 4. A win would not only stave off elimination but also set the stage for a historic comeback, as no team in NBA history has recovered from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series.
Whether Atkinson’s analytics-based optimism can translate to actual victories remains to be seen. For now, the Cavaliers must confront the harsh reality: fall again, and the Eastern Conference finals will belong entirely to the Knicks.
